Tyler Stearns |
The CFP Field is set, and it is a good one. If you looked at this group in September, you would be dumbfounded. But here we are. Let's predict who takes it home.
AT LARGE GAMES
Texas has the best defense in the nation. They shut down the Georgia offense and only lost the game because Texas and Quinn Ewers couldn't get it done down the stretch. Clemson has played poorly against good competition this year aside from the ACC Championship game versus SMU. Texas will win this game handedly.
Penn State has lost to the only two good teams they have played in Oregon and Ohio State. But both were within one score, and they had a chance to beat both teams. Their offense turned it on versus Oregon as Drew Allar looked like a first-round draft pick. SMU lost to Clemson, but they have eleven wins in a new conference. Kevin Jennings is a good QB and the offense can put up points. But they haven't faced a defense quite like Penn State's, so if Tyler Warren and the Nittany Lions can score, then it should be a relatively easy win.
Indiana hasn't beaten a single solid team aside from Michigan, which doesn't have an offense. Notre Dame has now beaten USC and Texas A&M away and dominated all other competition. The loss to Northern Illinois was bad, but that isn't the same team. Indiana will not be able to stop Jeremiah Love and the run game, which will hurt their chances of being able to shut down ND in third-down situations. Riley Leonard will need to throw the ball, and if he can, then Notre Dame should take care of their in-state foes.
Tennessee has been shaky all year. They have scraped by teams they should be destroying. But they have won ten games. So has Ohio State, but the Buckeyes roster suggests they should be 13-0 and the best team in the country. Yet they lost to two of the four best teams they played. Nonetheless, Ohio State has too talented a team to not win in any situation presented versus Tennessee, whose offense has been underperforming all year long.
SECOND ROUND
Oregon has the best offense in the country and can win shootouts. Their defense is not amazing, but they pressure the QB. These two teams played each other in Eugene earlier this year and the Ducks won by one point. If they were to meet again, at an indoor neutral site stadium, Oregon's offense will perform even better than when they did in November. The Ducks will take care of the Buckeyes.
This is an upset pick. Georgia hasn't been great against the run this year, and aside from Texas, they haven't gotten pressure on teams with good offensive lines (Alabama for example). Tennessee ran all over them with a worse rushing attack, and Milroe found the end zone multiple times at QB versus the Bulldogs earlier this year. Even Haynes King rushed for over 100 yards in Athens. Notre Dame has the most dynamic run game in the country and is built perfectly to beat this Georgia team. Like against Indiana, they have to throw the ball efficiently, but assuming they do, their defense should be able to limit a team without an offensive identity.
Penn State isn't great against the run, it isn't much of a secret. USC and Oregon ran all over them. And now they are playing the best running back in the country. But that's about it for Boise State. They don't have a dynamic enough passing attack to contend with this Penn State team. Sure, they were able to run on Oregon, but that was when Jeanty wasn't facing eight defenders in the box. Penn State is not a Mountain West team, they are a tough, big, and physical football team that can get to the QB and put points up on you. Jeanty will be able to run, but not enough to get the win.
Arizona State has never faced a defense like Texas's. The Longhorns shut down opposing offenses week in and week out. They get to the quarterback, they stop the run, and most importantly, they tackle. They will be able to stop Cam Skattebo, and they should be able to run the ball against the Sun Devils' weaker defense. Texas will win. FINAL FOUR
Again, Oregon's offense is unstoppable. And Texas's isn't. At a certain point, Oregon can put up points on Texas, and the same can't be said for the Longhorns. This will be a shootout, and the Longhorns can't compete with Quinn at QB. If they were to bench him for Arch, things may change, but for now, the Ducks should be the favorites.
Notre Dame's run stops here. Penn State has a great offense that can run and throw, and we saw that versus Oregon. Penn State will be able to stop the Notre Dame pass rush and give Allar time to throw. And they will also be able to run with Singleton and Allen all over the Fighting Irish defense. Notre Dame can't throw enough to be in a shootout, and they can't rely on turnovers because Allar doesn't throw enough picks to warrant a chaotic game plan. Penn State will get to the National Championship.
NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
The rematch from the B1G championship game will be played in the National Championship. And it will have a similar outcome. Neither defense could stop the opposing offenses, and the same will happen in January. Dillon Gabriel and Oregon will throw it all over the Nittany Lions - again - and go on to win their first National Title.
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